The National Association of Realtors® disclosed it expects existing-home sales over the next few months to hold fairly steady, and then rise later in the year and continue to improve in 2009.
NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said there is a pull and tug exerting itself on the market.
"On the one hand, we have a pent-up demand from the four million jobs added to our economy over the past two years of sales decline," he said. "On the other, consumers continue to wait for additional signs of market stabilization. There are more people with financial capacity now than in 2005, but many are trying to market-time their purchase. As a result, the exact timing and the strength of a home sales recovery is a bit uncertain. A meaningful recovery in existing-home sales could occur as early as this spring, or it may be further delayed toward late 2008."
Yun made his prediction based on the Pending Home Sales Index. The PHSI, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in November, fell 2.6 percent to a reading of 87.6 in October, but remains above the August and September readings and indicates a broad stabilization.
"Although there could be some minor slippage in the first quarter, existing-home sales should hold in a narrow range before trending up," Yun said.
The PHSI in the South rose 2.3 percent in November to 100.7 but is 19.8 percent below a year ago. In the West, the index slipped 2.1 percent to 86.6 but is 18.5 percent lower than November 2006. The index in the Midwest fell 4.1 percent in November to 82.1 and is 18.6 percent below a year ago. In the Northeast, the index dropped 13.0 percent in November to 70.1 from a spike in October, and is 19.1 percent below November 2006.
Existing-home sales for 2007 will probably total 5.66 million, the fifth highest on record, then edge up to 5.70 million this year and 5.91 million in 2009, compared with 6.48 million in 2006. Existing-home prices for 2007 are likely to be down 1.9 percent to a median of $217,600, hold even this year and then rise 3.1 percent in 2009 to $224,400.
There are wide variations in housing market conditions around the country, with nearly two-thirds of the metropolitan areas showing price gains. The National Association of Realtors® reported healthy increases in metro prices are occurring in places such as Pittsburgh; Beaumont-Port Arthur, Texas; San Jose, Calif.; and Bismarck, N.D.
The California Association of REALTORS® reported the median home price in Santa Clara County was $705,000 in November 2007, up 3.83 percent from the median home price of $679,000 in November 2006. The state Realtor report cited the Santa Clara County cities of Cupertino and Saratoga as among the top 10 cities and communities in the state with the highest median home prices during November 2007. The median home price in Saratoga was $1,300,000 and the median home price in Cupertino was $1,074,090. Cupertino and Mountain View ranked among the 10 cities and communities in California with the greatest median home price increases in November 2007. The median price in both cities rose 18 percent compared with the same period a year ago.
Mark Burns, a Realtor with Coldwell Banker in Cupertino and immediate past president of the Silicon Valley Association of REALTORS® said Cupertino, Saratoga and many communities located in the Silicon Valley region "will continue to maintain their value" because of their good school districts and other assets they hold.
"These communities have great commute location, a good mix of shopping and services and most especially, excellent schools," said Burns.
Burns pointed to U.S. News & World Report, which recently noted seven schools in the South Bay made the nation's 100 best public high schools in the publication's survey. Pacific Collegiate, a Santa Cruz charter school ranked No. 2. Also among the top 100 high schools were Mission San Jose in Fremont, Monta Vista in Cupertino, Gunn and Palo Alto High in Palo Alto, Saratoga and Lynbrook in San Jose.
The top 100 schools were awarded "gold medals," while 405 were awarded silver medals and more than 1,000 bronze medals. Of 18,500 analyzed in 40 states, nearly 1,600 high schools met the publication's criteria for great high schools based on 2005-06 test scores.
Gunn and Palo Alto High in Palo Alto, Lynbrook in west San Jose, Cupertino High, Saratoga High and Mission San Jose High in Fremont were awarded "gold medals." Homestead High in Cupertino; Los Gatos High, and Evergreen Valley, Leland and Pioneer high schools in San Jose earned "silver medals." Middle College High, an alternative school run by the San Jose Unified School District at San Jose City College, earned a bronze medal.
The Silicon Valley Association of REALTORS® (SILVAR) is a professional trade organization representing over 4,000 REALTORS® and Affiliate members engaged in the real estate business on the Peninsula and in the South Bay. SILVAR promotes the highest ethical standards of real estate practice, serves as an advocate for homeownership and homeowners, and represents the interests of property owners in Silicon Valley.
The term "REALTOR®" is a registered collective membership mark which identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and who subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.
Variations of this article have appeared in local area newspapers.
For further information, please contact Rose Meily at SILVAR Public Affairs, email , or phone (408) 200-0109.