As California's population grows, so will households, but their composition will change and could present big challenges for the state, according to a former county planner.
"The future looks gray," said retired Santa Clara County principal planner Don Weden to members of the Silicon Valley Association of REALTORS® at their meeting last week.
The California Department of Finance projects Santa Clara County's current population of 1.8 million will grow by 140,000 people in 15 years. Currently in Santa Clara County, one in 10 persons is age 65 and older. By 2030, one in five persons or one-fourth of the adult population will be over 65.
Weden worries because development plans in the 1960s were based on the drivable suburban model, "like people could drive forever." Studies show currently one in five Americans over 65 years of age do not drive due to the rising cost of gas. Many also prefer not to.
"Neighborhoods we thought were fun to grow up in may be problematic to grow old in," said Weden.
Meanwhile, millennials, the generation born between 1980 and 2000, now number 80 million, more than the aging baby boomers. They are tech savvy and sought after by businesses everywhere, including those in Silicon Valley.
Unlike generations before them, millennials don't see home ownership as an end goal. "They are also less confident in the economics of the American dream," said Weden.
The county planner explained millennials graduated with more student debt than their parents. Most are renters not only due to economic necessity, but because they want to be free to move from job to job without having to bother about selling a house each time they move. The rate of home ownership among the 25-34 year old group has fallen from 40 percent in 2007 to 31 percent in 2010.
Additionally, millennials are planning on having fewer children or not having them at all. Households with children under 18 comprised 50 percent of all U.S. households in 1960, but dropped to 30 percent in 2010, and are expected to shrink to 27 percent by 2025.
According to Weden all these findings are a wake-up call that planning needs to shift from predominantly drivable suburban neighborhoods to walkable urban neighborhoods. Studies show 88 percent of millennials want to live in an urban setting that is walkable, with access to transportation. These neighborhoods would also appeal to aging baby boomers.
Walkable urban neighborhoods need not be exotic, but they should be complete, offering residents of all ages an active lifestyle, with services and shops, including grocery stores and other amenities. This evolution is slowly taking place in some Bay Area cities, but more California cities need to get on board, said Weden.
The Silicon Valley Association of REALTORS® (SILVAR) is a professional trade organization representing over 4,000 REALTORS® and Affiliate members engaged in the real estate business on the Peninsula and in the South Bay. SILVAR promotes the highest ethical standards of real estate practice, serves as an advocate for homeownership and homeowners, and represents the interests of property owners in Silicon Valley.
The term "REALTOR®" is a registered collective membership mark which identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and who subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.
Variations of this article have appeared in local area newspapers.
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