Home prices are expected to recover nationwide in 2008 with existing-home sales picking up late this year and new-home sales rising early next year, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).
Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, said a good buyers' market has evolved. "Buyers now have an overwhelming advantage given the wide selection of homes available in many markets," he said. "But with profit margins coming under pressure, homebuilders will limit new construction well into 2008. This should help the overall inventory level to move steadily into a more balanced state."
Existing-home sales are expected to total 6.11 million this year and 6.37 million in 2008, down from 6.48 million last year. New-home sales are projected at 865,000 in 2007 and 878,000 next year, compared with 1.05 million in 2006. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are forecast at 1.43 million units this year and 1.44 million in 2008, down from 1.80 million last year.
Existing-home prices are likely to rise 1.8 percent to a median of $222,700 in 2008 after a 1.4 percent decline this year to $218,800. The median new-home price should rise 2.2 percent to $245,400 next year following a 2.6 percent drop in 2007 to $240,100.
"Markets that sharply reduce new construction in 2007 will generally experience respectable price increases in 2008," Yun said. "Local conditions vary considerably, but with historically low mortgage interest rates this summer and sustained job gains, it could be a good time for first-time buyers with a long-term view to test the housing waters."
"It's always a good time to buy a home in Silicon Valley if you are looking for a place for the long-term," according to John Tripp, past president of the Silicon Valley Association of REALTORS® (SILVAR). Homes have greatly appreciated in the area and will continue to do so, he said.
"The transition in the market from record levels to more normal conditions is very beneficial for homebuyers today. They are not experiencing the same undue pressure or stress to stretch themselves beyond their reasonable financial resources to purchase property today," said Tripp, noting mortgage rates are still low compared to double digit figures in the past.
NAR announced the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is estimated to average 6.7 percent during the second half of this year, and fluctuate around 6.6 percent in 2008.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) will probably be 2 percent in 2007, compared with a 3.3 percent growth rate last year; GDP is forecast to grow 2.8 percent in 2008. NAR also projects the unemployment rate is likely to average 4.6 percent in 2007, unchanged from last year. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is projected at 2.6 percent in 2007, down from 3.2 percent last year. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income should rise 3.0 percent this year, up from a 2.6 percent gain in 2006.
The Silicon Valley Association of REALTORS® (SILVAR) is a professional trade organization representing over 4,000 REALTORS® and Affiliate members engaged in the real estate business on the Peninsula and in the South Bay. SILVAR promotes the highest ethical standards of real estate practice, serves as an advocate for homeownership and homeowners, and represents the interests of property owners in Silicon Valley.
The term "REALTOR®" is a registered collective membership mark which identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and who subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.
Variations of this article have appeared in local area newspapers.
For further information, please email or call the SILVAR office at (408) 200-0100.