The U.S. housing market has received mixed reviews lately, but the market's outlook can be positive or negative, depending on whether you see the glass half empty or half full, according to a local REALTOR® official.
Jeff Bell, president of the Silicon Valley Association of REALTORS®, sees signs of improvement:
On the other hand, Doomsdayers point out that new home sales year-over-year fell 16.7 percent in June and that the June sales pace is the second slowest ever on record since 1963, when the Commerce Department began tracking the information. Also in June, new home construction fell 5 percent from the previous month and on a year-over-year basis, housing starts were down 5.8 percent. In addition, the Conference Board Consumer Research Center announced consumer confidence, still dogged by job worries, fell to 50.4 in July from 54.3 in June.
Bell maintains a positive outlook. "People are always quick to note we are still hovering around record lows. We have to remember we have experienced the deepest housing crash since the Great Depression. The numbers are low, but market indicators are improving. The outlook does not appear as bleak as it did a couple of years ago," he says.
Bell indicates existing-home sales slowed in June but still remained above year-ago levels, and while single-family home sales in June dropped 5.6 percent from the previous month, they were 8.5 percent above the June 2009 pace. The median existing single-family home price was $184,200 in June, up 1.3 percent from a year ago.
A REALTOR®, with Coldwell Banker in Cupertino, Bell also stresses market conditions vary, depending on location. He indicates, "Most of the media is reporting on the housing market on a national basis. Remember, real estate is local and Silicon Valley is faring much better than the national average."
Information from MLSListings Inc., the REALTOR® association's multiple listing service, shows a total of 1,096 closed sales of single family homes in Santa Clara County in June, down slightly from 1,189 in June 2009, and the county's June median home price of $525,000 up 15.1 percent from $456,000 the same period last year.
Total housing starts in California continued to gain ground, according to the California Building Industry Association. There were a total of 4,238 permits for housing units in June, up 19 percent from the same period last year and up 34 percent from the previous month. Permits for single-family homes totaled 2,628, down 9 percent from June 2009, but up 33 percent from the previous month; multifamily permits totaled 1,610, up 140 percent from a year ago and up 35 percent from May.
"Many economists worry about a possible double-dip recession. With the end of the federal home buyer tax credit and absence of future government stimulus, we do expect sales to level off for a few months. Jumbo loans are getting easier to obtain, and this will help the middle and high end housing market," Bell said.
The Silicon Valley Association of REALTORS® (SILVAR) is a professional trade organization representing over 4,000 REALTORS® and Affiliate members engaged in the real estate business on the Peninsula and in the South Bay. SILVAR promotes the highest ethical standards of real estate practice, serves as an advocate for homeownership and homeowners, and represents the interests of property owners in Silicon Valley.
The term "REALTOR®" is a registered collective membership mark which identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and who subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.
Variations of this article have appeared in local area newspapers.
For further information, please email or call the SILVAR office at (408) 200-0100.