Longtime appraiser Roger Miller's message to members of the Silicon Valley Association of REALTORS® last week was one of "guarded optimism" about 2011, but he is especially positive about this spring.
"Things are starting to turn around," Miller remarked, as he proceeded to share his data.
Miller, an appraiser with Taketa, Miller & Associates, said ayear ago at this time there were 95 listings in Los Gatos; this year at this time, Miller indicated there are 111. A year ago, Saratoga had 73 listings; this year at this time, it had 71.
Miller pointed to even more good news. Pending sales in Los Gatos at this time last year were 39; they are 43 this year. Saratoga had 20 last year; it has 36 this year. 2010 home sales were up in Los Gatos 22 percent from 2009; Monte Sereno, up 42 percent; and Saratoga, up 25 percent.
Miller said homes priced at two million dollars and under are in a very strong market - 92 percent of last year's home sales in Los Gatos were under $2 million; Monte Sereno, 65 percent; and Saratoga, 81 percent.
If a listing is under $2 million, if it's priced right and in the Los Gatos school district, it will sell in one to two months or less. "If your listing is under a million (dollars) in Los Gatos and it hasn't sold, there's something wrong," Miller told REALTORS® .
There is no question prices have dropped, some by as much as 20 percent, and others more, depending on the area. Miller said a home bought at the end of 2007 or at the beginning of 2008 would sell roughly for the same price today.
If there are many foreclosures and REOs in a neighborhood, they are certainly affecting the market. Miller said in the Los Gatos area, this is not much of an issue. There continue to be multiple offers – one home received six offers recently. There also have been a number of high-end homes that have sold in the $4 million and above range in Woodside, Atherton and Los Altos Hills.
Miller advised REALTORS® to always do a true history on comps and always check the absorption rate. There is a direct correlation between days on market and the eventual sales price. In Los Gatos, for homes priced between $1 and 2 million, the absorption rate is three months; between $2 to 3 million, seven months; between $3 to 4 million, seven to10 months. In Saratoga, the absorption rate for homes priced under $1 million is one month; between $1 and 2 million, two months; between $2 and 3 million, eight months. Between $3 and 4 million, 5.5 months.
Miller indicated REALTORS® should not have to deal with out-of-town appraisers, unless the report is co-signed by an appraiser who knows the area. Speak with the bank manager; it is important to know the bank you are dealing with, he stressed.
There's more optimism in the air, according to Miller. He is encouraged by stocks improving, as well as increased employment in the area. He noted Google is hiring 6,000 new employees nationwide and 2,000 locally, which is good for the area. Even heavier traffic these days points to more activity and people being employed.
"Everything is starting to turn," Miller repeated.
Miller is especially confident that the housing market in the region will see a boom, at least this spring. He told REALTORS® time is of essence and if they have sellers who are sitting on the fence, "tell them to get their house on the market now, within the next two weeks."
The Silicon Valley Association of REALTORS® (SILVAR) is a professional trade organization representing over 4,000 REALTORS® and Affiliate members engaged in the real estate business on the Peninsula and in the South Bay. SILVAR promotes the highest ethical standards of real estate practice, serves as an advocate for homeownership and homeowners, and represents the interests of property owners in Silicon Valley.
The term "REALTOR®" is a registered collective membership mark which identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and who subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.
Variations of this article have appeared in local area newspapers.
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