In less than 20 years, a quarter of the adult population of Santa Clara County will be over 65. Many will not be driving, but living in cities which were designed for the automobile. The projected demographics are a "time bomb," a retired county planner recently told Silicon Valley REALTORS®.
Preparing our cities for our aging population by planning now for senior-friendly communities would benefit all ages and contribute to our economic, environmental and social sustainability, according to retired Santa Clara County planner Don Weden. Weden presented his findings entitled "Cities for all Ages: Land Use Planning and Our Aging Population" to members of the Silicon Valley Association of REALTORS® at a June district meeting.
Weden said projections into the future see population increasing not because of births, but because people are living longer. In the 1900s, life expectancy was 30 years worldwide; 47 years in the U.S. A hundred years later, expectancy has doubled to 67 years worldwide and 77 years in the U.S.
By 2030, California's population is expected to increase 26 percent to 10 million more people; the Bay Area's population 19 percent to 1.4 million more people; and Santa Clara County's population 27 percent to 489,000 more people. The 65 years and older group will see the largest increase in the county and the 35-54 age group will see the least growth, according to Weden.
By 2030, one out of four adults in Santa Clara County will be seniors. This means there will be the need for more health care workers to assist the aging population. It means baby boomers, who once drove the real estate market, will reach a crossover point and exhibit different buying behavior, such as selling their home and downsizing. Less growth in the 35-54 age group could also mean more sellers than buyers and fewer trade-ups.
Weden noted the projected demographics also brings home the reality that the suburban model is no longer practical. Roadways have become congested, gas prices have skyrocketed and people are outliving their ability to drive. In fact, studies show currently, one-fifth of persons over 65 do not drive.
"Our land use patterns will significantly affect the quality of life of seniors, particularly if they are unable to drive or choose not to drive. We will need to make our cities more senior-friendly," concluded Weden.
Research shows non-driving seniors make 12 percent fewer trips to the doctor; 60 percent fewer trips to restaurants and shopping centers; and 65 percent fewer trips to social, family and religious activities. Seniors want to be independent, active and engaged, and not planning for senior-friendly communities could affect their quality of life, said Weden.
"We are not planning enough for this. We need to become intelligently more urban," said Weden.
Weden stressed cities need to recognize transportation needs and create livable, green, urban neighborhoods. Livable neighborhoods that are convenient, vibrant, diverse, health, safe and nurturing; green communities that are energy and water efficient, waste pollution minimizing, nature-friendly, greenhouse gas reducing and sustainable; urban settings that are high density, mixed-use, transit-oriented, walkable/bikable and synergistic.
"These are the building blocks for sustainable, senior-friendly cities that benefit everyone. Recognizing the future is only beginning, but we need to plan now because land use takes time to evolve," Weden told the REALTORS®.
The Silicon Valley Association of REALTORS® (SILVAR) is a professional trade organization representing over 4,000 REALTORS® and Affiliate members engaged in the real estate business on the Peninsula and in the South Bay. SILVAR promotes the highest ethical standards of real estate practice, serves as an advocate for homeownership and homeowners, and represents the interests of property owners in Silicon Valley.
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Variations of this article have appeared in local area newspapers.
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