Event Coverage
2026 Global Housing Market Outlook
On Thursday, March 26, 2026, the SILVAR Global Business Council welcomed Oscar Wei, Deputy Chief Economist for the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), to discuss how the current global housing market is caught between domestic resilience and international volatility.
Wei opened by addressing the escalating conflict in the Middle East. "We have a lot of things going on," Wei noted. "The conflicts in the Middle East actually created a little bit of chaos, not only in the global economy...but also in the housing market."
He highlighted that the Strait of Hormuz controls roughly 20% to 25% of the global oil supply. The recent disruption has caused a drop in supply that Wei characterized as the "largest in terms of volume throughout the last 50 years," surpassing even the oil embargoes of the 1970s.
Wei's analysis of consumer discretionary income noted that while average tax refunds in 2026 are expected to be between $500 and $750 higher than last year, the surge in energy costs is effectively neutralizing that gain.
"The economic growth that we are hoping to get from the tax refund could be wiped out by those gas price increases," Wei warned. He estimated that if oil stays near $110 per barrel, the average household will face an additional $740 in annual gas costs, essentially "erasing" the stimulus effect of the tax season and dampening buyer purchasing power.
Despite high prices, Wei pushed back against the idea that the Bay Area is in a bubble. Referencing the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index, he noted that while cities like Miami are considered "elevated," the San Francisco Bay Area remains stable.
"The chance of [the San Francisco Bay Area] actually hitting a bubble level is actually quite low," Wei stated. "Even though, of course, in the U.S., we are seeing a continued increase in home prices in some areas…compared to some of the other countries, we're still actually more affordable."
The conflict has already forced mortgage rates up by 50 to 60 basis points, leading to a major shift in Wei's forecast. While he previously expected rates to drop below 6% by now, the inflationary nature of the energy crisis has changed the timeline.
"My gut feeling is it probably won't…peak out at about 6.75%, 6.8% if it actually gets there," Wei shared.
Looking toward the end of the year, he projected an average closer to 6.125% or 6.25%: "It is very likely that the Federal Reserve may not make any changes in the first half of the year ... it is very likely they may not even make a rate change until the second half."
Wei drew a comparison between the current market and the 1970s oil crisis, pointing out that, despite a decline in sales activity during that earlier period, home prices were unaffected.
"In terms of price in California," Wei stated, "we actually saw an increase in price in both 1973 and '1974."
For 2026, he maintains a "flat to slightly positive" outlook for California prices, provided the stock market remains stable.
"If the stock market actually takes [a hit]...that's a different story," he cautioned, "but for now, the primary headwind remains the inflationary flare-up from the Middle East."
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